The collapse of the global avocado market.

The looming crisis for the Mexican production sector in the medium term (2023-2027)

Abstract

In the last decade, the global avocado market has shown severe symptoms of instability; the increase in supply contrasts with stagnant global demand and the slowdown in imports from the largest consumer: the US. This research studies the production and commercialization of Mexican avocados in the international context, verifying, through statistical analysis, the negative trend of the indicators that exponentially encouraged the growth of its plantations in the last 40 years; It focuses on the imbalance of market variables that ultimately affected price, export volume, and international demand. With the Minitab software, predictive time series methods were applied to forecast the price of Mexican avocados for the period 2023 – 2027, resulting, when confronted with four possible scenarios of average inflation for the same period in Mexico, at levels that in real terms question the financial viability and profitability of the business, anticipating the severe crisis to reach the national production sector in the medium term.