Comercio, IED y crecimiento económico en China: 1982-2017
Palabras clave:
Comercio, crecimiento económico, China, crecimiento a partir de las exportaciones, importaciones, IEDResumen
Este artículo estudia la relación causal entre el comercio ex terior, la inversión y el crecimiento económico en China. Se emplea un modelo vectorial autorregresivo (VAR) de cuatro variables para examinar la relación causal estadística entre ex portaciones, importaciones, inversión extranjera directa (IED) y crecimiento económico, empleando datos anuales de 1982 a 2017. Analizamos la causalidad de Granger, funciones de impulso respuesta y descomposición de la varianza. Las tres pruebas confirman la causalidad bidireccional entre crecimiento económico y exportaciones. Encontramos que la IED llegó al país en respuesta a las exportaciones y que éstas junto con el crecimiento económico, explican el crecimiento de las importaciones. Estas relaciones causales responden al caso particular de la apertura china.
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