Factores que influyen en la demanda y contagio de volatilidad del limón de origen mexicano importado por el mercado de los EUA

Renato Francisco González Sánchez; Miguel Ángel Tinoco Zermeño

doi:10.53897/RevAIA.25.29.01

Autores/as

Renato Francisco González Sánchez Facultad de Economía, Universidad de Colima https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0737-2838
Miguel Ángel Tinoco Zermeño Facultad de Economía, Universidad de Colima https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4707-2450

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.53897/RevAIA.25.29.01

Palabras clave:

Comercio, ARDL, GARCH-BEKK, incertidumbre

Resumen

Objetivo. Este trabajo tiene dos objetivos: parametrizar un modelo de equilibrio de largo y corto plazo, que explique qué factores influyen en la demanda de importación de limón fresco de origen mexicano por el mercado de los EUA; y por otra parte, se estima el contagio de volatilidad o incertidumbre en los mercados de limón de México y de los EUA. Materiales y métodos. Se emplean variables de precios de limón en México, y el número de asesinatos dolosos en México, precios y cantidades de importación de limón mexicano en EUA, el tipo de cambio real en EUA (dólares por pesos mexicano), el ingreso disponible real per cápita en los EUA y el precio doméstico del limón amarillo en EUA. El periodo de análisis es de 2000 a 2024 con frecuencia mensual. Se emplean los modelos autorregresivos de rezagos distribuidos (ARDL) y heterocedasticidad condicional multivariada (GARCH-BEKK). Resultados. Los precios del limón importado de México, el tipo de cambio real y el ingreso disponible per cápita en los EUA impactan significativamente, aunque de manera diferenciada la importación de limón de origen mexicano en los EUA, tanto en el corto como en el largo plazo. Asimismo, la volatilidad de los precios en México y de exportación a los EUA son contagiados por la incertidumbre derivada de la inseguridad en México, así como por shocks repentinos o persistentes debidos a la volatilidad del tipo de cambio real y el ingreso per cápita disponible en los EUA. Conclusión. Estos resultados son útiles para mejorar la política de fomento comercial agroalimentario mexicano; y para la planeación de empresas exportadoras de frutas y verduras frescas

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Biografía del autor/a

Renato Francisco González Sánchez, Facultad de Economía, Universidad de Colima

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Miguel Ángel Tinoco Zermeño , Facultad de Economía, Universidad de Colima

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Citas

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