China Global Review

Presentation

José Luis León-Manríquez — 2024-11-26

At least since the presidency of Donald Trump in the United States, and the Covid-19 pandemic, there has been an important debate about the future of China and its ability to sustain and grow as a superpower, capable of exerting a significant counterweight to the United States in the international system. A significant text in this debate is that of the American academic and former diplomat Susan Shirk (2022), who argues that China's “peaceful rise” would be ruined by an increasingly open exercise of hard power. This is expressed, inter alia, in threats to Taiwan and South China Sea neighbors, the tightening of its control over Hong Kong and the open challenge to U.S. military, technological and economic hegemony. This overreach, which also includes a hardening of the political regime in Beijing, could call into question the continued existence of the People's Republic of China (PRC) as a superpower.

The Chinese Automotive Construction Companies

Juan José Ramírez Bonilla — 2024-11-26

The paper analyzes the emergence of China as the main producer of motor vehicles and its consolidation as the second largest exporter of automotive goods. To this end, we highlight China's specialization in the production of vehicles for the private transport of people, as the main advantage to displace its main competitors in international markets. In addition, we insist that Chinese automobile construction companies are avatars of the State and that their competitiveness is based both on state financial support and on a strategy of localization in the Chinese mainland. These factors, taken together, explain the ability of some Chinese companies to produce and export electric vehicles.

Decoupling and trilateral trade among China, Mexico, and the United States

Xuedong Liu — 2024-11-26

Although Mexico has occupied a less prominent position for the Asian country, the products sent by China to the Aztec market represent the essential elements for the development of its value and supply chains, especially to improve the level of competitiveness in international markets.

The basic hypothesis of this analysis is that the efforts made by the United States aimed at the potential decoupling between the two economic superpowers could contribute to the strengthening of Mexican exports to the US import market, positioning itself not only as the first trading partner for its partner in the TMEC, but also as the dominant supplier in the same market; For their part, the commercial links between Mexico and China could become increasingly complex that it is difficult to predict their performance, especially in the medium and long range.

Dynamics and Volatilities of the Asian Exchange-Rate Returns, 2020-2024

Antonio Ruiz Porras — 2024-11-26

We study the dynamics and volatilities of six series of Asian exchange returns during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The study uses seven ARCH/GARCH models, various statistical assumptions, and three goodnessof-fit criteria. The findings show that the best models to describe the series of exchange rate returns are: 1) The FIEGARCH(1,1,1) for the returns of China, Indonesia, and Japan; 2) the FIGARCH(1,1) for Malaysia; 3) the GARCH(1,1) for Hong Kong; and, 4) the PARCH (1,1,1) for Taiwan. The six exchange rate series used include daily data from 01/02/2020 to 02/15/2024.

Implications of China-Laos International Cooperation towards investment and the Belt and Road Initiative

Tania Anahí Díaz González — 2024-11-26

This article aims to examine the economic cooperation relations between China and Laos, specifically the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative in Laos, resulting in both advantages and challenges for its economic development. Employing a qualitative methodology, the article analyzes the bilateral relationship between China and Laos within the context of the BRI initiative. This research, by utilizing the case of Laos as an illustration, contributes to the comprehension of the effects of BRI projects worldwide.

China’s Geodigital Power in Africa: The Case of South Africa

Pamela Elizabeth Morales Cobos — 2024-11-26

In a digitalized world, it is not enough to have an internet connection, if it is not fast and with low latency, characteristics of 5G. This mobile network intertwines technology with security, economy and international
relations. In order to lead its global deployment, China and the US confront each other, because this innovation increases their geodigital power –understood
as participation in the standardization of the mobile network, dissemination in their territory and dispersion to other regions with impacts beyond commercial and technological–. The search for strategic countries for
the reinforcement of geodigital power, led China to South Africa, a country underestimated by the West for technological investment, but which plays a fundamental role in Africa, acting as a regional leader and a key player in
various areas.

The Relationship between China and Ecuador: Nationalizing the Neoliberal Model

Andrés Felipe Bautista Peñaloza — 2024-11-26

This article aims to question the presence of the People's Republic of China in the Ecuadorian economy, considering that China, far from guaranteeing greater autonomy to the productive apparatus of Ecuador, reproduces asymmetric economic and political relations in alliance with the local elites of the South American country. The article contains three parts. First, it aims to describe the recent panorama of Sino-Latin American relations. Then, it reviews the role of Latin America in Chinese foreign policy, in regard to the support for development from Beijing. Finally, it discusses the Ecuadorian case based on the financing that the Chinese government has provided in this country, the conditions under which this financing is granted and the preliminary results in the productive apparatus, considering the construction of the Coca-Codo Sinclair Hydroelectric Power Plant as an example of the nationalization of the neoliberal model.